Trump said yesterday that he couldn’t rule out the possibility of a recession this year and today Wall Street lost its mind. Although I think the reason is uncertainty over the effects tariffs will have on the economy. Which by the way is in keeping with my view that the markets are just legalized gambling. People just make guesses about what might happen.

But that’s not the reason for this rant. I heard something on the Will Cain Show today while I was driving that I haven’t seen anywhere else and it makes perfect sense and I should have thought about it but was too busy thinking about tariffs also. Listen GDP includes government spending as well as private sector spending. Thus with DOGE and Trump removing employees and cutting contracts and grants this will shrink GDP in the near term until all the new manufacturing comes on line and the private sector picks up the slack left by the government. It makes sense and has nothing to do with tariffs.

Just a thought.